Reduction of Markov Chains using a Value-of-Information-Based Approach

In this paper, we propose an approach to obtain reduced-order models of Markov chains. Our approach is composed of two information-theoretic processes. The first is a means of comparing pairs of stationary chains on different state spaces, which is done via the negative Kullback-Leibler divergence defined on a model joint space. Model reduction is achieved by solving a value-of-information criterion with respect to this divergence. Optimizing the criterion leads to a probabilistic partitioning of the states in the high-order Markov chain. A single free parameter that emerges through the optimization process dictates both the partition uncertainty and the number of state groups. We provide a data-driven means of choosing the `optimal' value of this free parameter, which sidesteps needing to a priori know the number of state groups in an arbitrary chain.Comment: Submitted to Entrop

Partitioning Relational Matrices of Similarities or Dissimilarities using the Value of Information

In this paper, we provide an approach to clustering relational matrices whose entries correspond to either similarities or dissimilarities between objects. Our approach is based on the value of information, a parameterized, information-theoretic criterion that measures the change in costs associated with changes in information. Optimizing the value of information yields a deterministic annealing style of clustering with many benefits. For instance, investigators avoid needing to a priori specify the number of clusters, as the partitions naturally undergo phase changes, during the annealing process, whereby the number of clusters changes in a data-driven fashion. The global-best partition can also often be identified.Comment: Submitted to the IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing (ICASSP

An Analysis of the Value of Information when Exploring Stochastic, Discrete Multi-Armed Bandits

In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic exploration strategy for stochastic, discrete multi-armed bandits that achieves optimal regret. Our strategy is based on the value of information criterion. This criterion measures the trade-off between policy information and obtainable rewards. High amounts of policy information are associated with exploration-dominant searches of the space and yield high rewards. Low amounts of policy information favor the exploitation of existing knowledge. Information, in this criterion, is quantified by a parameter that can be varied during search. We demonstrate that a simulated-annealing-like update of this parameter, with a sufficiently fast cooling schedule, leads to an optimal regret that is logarithmic with respect to the number of episodes.Comment: Entrop

Request-and-Reverify: Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing for Concept Drift Detection with Expensive Labels

One important assumption underlying common classification models is the stationarity of the data. However, in real-world streaming applications, the data concept indicated by the joint distribution of feature and label is not stationary but drifting over time. Concept drift detection aims to detect such drifts and adapt the model so as to mitigate any deterioration in the model's predictive performance. Unfortunately, most existing concept drift detection methods rely on a strong and over-optimistic condition that the true labels are available immediately for all already classified instances. In this paper, a novel Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing framework with Request-and-Reverify strategy is developed to detect concept drifts by requesting labels only when necessary. Two methods, namely Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing with Classification Uncertainty (HHT-CU) and Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing with Attribute-wise "Goodness-of-fit" (HHT-AG), are proposed respectively under the novel framework. In experiments with benchmark datasets, our methods demonstrate overwhelming advantages over state-of-the-art unsupervised drift detectors. More importantly, our methods even outperform DDM (the widely used supervised drift detector) when we use significantly fewer labels.Comment: Published as a conference paper at IJCAI 201